Asheville Leadership Forum Analyzes 2024 Election Results and Future Political Trends

Asheville Analyzes 2024 Election Results at Leadership Forum

Asheville has become a hub of engaging political discourse as the Leadership Asheville Forum reconvened for its November Critical Issues Luncheon at the Asheville Country Club. Attendees gathered to absorb insights from Dr. Chris Cooper, a well-known political analyst and Distinguished Professor at Western Carolina University, who provided an analysis of the recent election. In a witty and friendly manner, Dr. Cooper dubbed the election “a boring election with extraordinary consequences.”

An Election That Was Predictably Boring

The event drew more than 50 community members eager to hear Cooper’s take on this seemingly uneventful election, where many results came in quickly and without much surprise. He mentioned how some pollsters accurately predicted the election map down to individual states, indicating a strong understanding of the prevailing political climate.

Cooper pointed to two key factors that shaped the election outcomes: the popularity of the incumbent party and the public’s perception of inflation. According to his analysis, it was no shock that only a handful of U.S. Senate seats were flipped during the election. Out of 35 races, four seats changed parties, even in traditionally Republican strongholds like Montana and West Virginia. “On average, we see about 3.6 Senate seats flip every election,” Cooper explained.

North Carolina: A Purple State

Within his discussion, Cooper focused particularly on North Carolina, characterizing it as a purple state—a mix of Republican (red) and Democratic (blue) influences. He noted, “Being a purple state means we’re somewhere near the middle of the country. I never said it was a swing state,” as he stressed that North Carolina ranks as the 25th most democratic state in the nation.

Most counties, as Cooper observed, voted in line with their party affiliations, revealing a split between urban and rural voters. Notably, Asheville and its neighboring areas like Buncombe, Transylvania, and Henderson counties shifted away from the Republican party and Donald Trump during this election cycle. While some attributed this to factors like Hurricane Helene, Cooper saw it as part of a broader shift in regional sentiments.

Split-Ticket Voting Trend

In North Carolina, the habit of split-ticket voting has long been a tradition, where voters can favor Democrats for state offices while choosing Republicans for national positions. “We like basketball, barbecue, CookOut, and splitting tickets,” he quipped, before highlighting a significant statistic: a notable number of Republicans cast their votes for Democrat Josh Stein in the gubernatorial race. This race concluded with a historic margin of 15.5% in favor of Stein, which Cooper referred to as “nothing normal.”

Analyzing the Consequences

As the audience engaged with him, Cooper touched on the “extraordinary consequences” resulting from the election. With Republicans now dominating all three branches of the federal government, questions arose about when these changes would make a local impact. He underscored the importance of participating in primaries, especially given the limited number of genuinely competitive races.

Cooper also highlighted the need for candidates to innovate in their campaigning methods, advocating for the use of podcasts and alternative media to connect with a wider audience. As he wrapped up, he pivoted to the active state legislative session, where discussions around a bill for Hurricane Helene relief were underway.

Looking Ahead

Instead of the customary Critical Issues Luncheon, the Leadership Asheville Forum will host a festive Christmas party on December 11. Participants can look forward to resuming these thought-provoking discussions in 2025, with the first session starting January 22, where representatives from RiverLink will offer insights on the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and living harmoniously with the French Broad River.